Viaquant

Predictive modeling and pattern recognition across crypto, equities, and more.

BTC79,097+0.15%ETH2,471−0.46%Total Crypto$2.68T−2.71%GOLD4,701.80+0.09%DXY98.96−0.04%VIX15.55+2.78%NVDA212.21+1.79%SOL97.95−0.70%SPX7,674.78+0.29%QQQ711.09+0.68%

About

Meet the Mind Behind the Models

Ryan Bolks is the creator of Viaquant, a quantitative research practice focused on predictive modeling across the world's largest asset classes. Over seven years, he has developed systematic, model-driven strategies that translate market structure and macro signals into verifiable, timestamped forecasts. His methodology is grounded in mathematical rigor and pattern recognition, applying probabilistic frameworks to identify high-probability market behavior before it unfolds. Every analysis published under the Viaquant name is held to the same standard as institutional research, designed to help investors and traders develop a deeper, more structured understanding of markets and price behavior.

In 2022, Bolks began publishing his work on TradingView, the largest and most popular investing community, social network, and charting platform in the world, with over 100 million users. What makes TradingView uniquely suited to this approach is its immutability: once an idea is published, it cannot be edited, deleted, or altered in any form. Every forecast stands permanently on the record, exactly as it was written. That is the standard Viaquant operates by, and why every idea published means something. To learn more about Ryan, follow his socials or connect with him directly.

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Market Analysis

Most Recent Ideas & Predictions

TOTAL·12H

TOTAL - Triple Top

The total crypto market cap has once again topped at the $2.71 trillion level. I made a specific mention of this in my last post on TOTAL, stating: "Even if price does continue climbing above this zone ($2.62T), as the market cap saw yesterday with a move to around $2.67 trillion, there is an even more critical level sitting around $2.71 trillion, and it will likely not be easy to break through on the first attempt." So far, that first attempt at this level has failed, with approximately $100 billion wiped out from the total market cap since reaching it. The developments that have occurred right in line with TOTAL hitting $2.71 trillion are no coincidence. The first is that the 12H timeframe formed a gravestone doji, which could be the first major signal of a reversal beginning for crypto. Confluence Across the Board The next development is that Bitcoin hit a high of $81,300, right in line with my weekly 50 MA prediction of $81,100, outlined in this idea: SOL also formed another top right at the upper boundary of the parallel channel I outlined yesterday: ETH topped as well, right at the upper trendline from the last idea posted, forming what looks like a lower timeframe triple top: A Familiar Pattern I also pointed this out when TOTAL formed its double top at $2.71 trillion back in May 2026, right before the drop to $2 trillion occurred. That idea can be found here: No matter what happens next, understand that this rejection from $2.71 trillion is nothing to take lightly. A pullback from this region remains expected, and it is becoming an increasingly higher probability scenario the longer price spends struggling in this area.

SOL - Facing Significant Resistance

Solana is nearing significant resistance for a number of different reasons, but in this idea I will break it down into three simple technical indicators. 1. The Parallel Channel The first is this parallel channel I have outlined. This marks the third retest of resistance to the upside (red arrows). It has also seen significant support and resistance flips at the heartline (white arrows), along with a couple of tests at the lower support range (green arrows). 2. The $100 Psychological Level The second is that price is nearing the $100 psychological level. In practice this represents more of a range between $96 and $100, as market participants often begin de-risking before price actually reaches the round number itself: 3. Key Moving Averages Finally, I want to outline a couple of key moving averages. In this idea I have the daily chart pulled up, but I also have the 3-day 100 MA (red) and the weekly 200 MA (blue) outlined. The last thing I want to touch on is my previous ideas, which can be found here: The main thing worth highlighting from those ideas is that the measured move of $97.50 has already been reached. Additionally, the SOL/BTC pair also achieved its predicted target at the dotted green line, as outlined here:

DOGE - Further Rejection Likely

Let's take a trip back down memory lane to May 16th, when I predicted the last top for DOGE: Since then, the price action that has developed has been incredible. The RSI broke its uptrend which led directly to the breakdown of that support region. Price crashed even further and created a bullish divergence at the lows, right before the large rally to $0.10 that just occurred. Looking at the line chart, where only candle closes matter, price has only slightly extended above the box marking old support, which should now act as new resistance. However, if DOGE can begin forming a base within this zone rather than closing back below it, there is a good chance it could actually have the fuel needed to rally toward the $0.12 level once again. It is still too early to say for certain, and as noted, a break back below this zone remains the more likely outcome for now. But if price does somehow form a base here and begins the move back to the upside, I will make an updated post at that time.

by VIAQUANT

19h ago

0 0

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BTC·1D

BTC- Could The Bottom Be In?

We have been waiting for a black swan event to help us reach our Q4 bottom (based on range date trend) and thanks to FTX we got it today. Therefore, did this lower low mark our 2022 bottom? In this chart you can see we have had a very key trendline (black dotted line). Every time we have rallied up to it, we have seen a rejection (red arrows) until we finally broke above (breakout). Since the breakout, we fell in prices to retest our old resistance as new support (successful retest #1) and confirmed it by rallying 15% off of that trendline. Then, we created a lower high in price around $21,500 and have had this collapse to the downside. What is interesting is our wick ($16,800) tapped our trendline exactly again confirming it as new support (successful retest #2) and have already had around a 10% bounce off the low. This could indicate the bottom is in as long as we continue to close daily candle bodies inside or above our key support zone (green box). Of course this could be the straw that broke the camels back and we go much much lower to the prices I have indicated in the past (check "My Black Swan Theory" analysis for these levels). Right now I am very bullish as this looks exactly like what happened in our bear market of 2015. On top of that, the Pi cycle bottom has already flashed, Based on the date range trend we should see a bottom in Q4 2022 (which this could be it), and many other indicators that say the bottom is in. I am happy to change my analysis is we start closing key candle bodies below our key support, but for now I'm sticking to my thesis that the bottom was just put in.

BTC- Bottom most likely in based on TOTAL

Please refer to my previous post "Total Cryptocap" to see my prediction of the crypto markets losing 200B+ to hit the $760B level again. Here is one of the most important charts for all of crypto. This includes every cryptocurrency across the board. From my previous post we were looking for a retest of the $760B level then if we had a weekly confirmation close below we would look for the $300-400B levels. So far, this has played out like clockwork. Marketcap got rejected at the key $1.04 T level (FTX collapse) and sent us back to the same $760B level. What is very interesting now is what happened at the retest of $760B. Instead of closing a weekly candle below, we held every candle as support and have now made a momentous rally back to $950B! This is amazing because it could have cemented the bottom based on marketcap. There are many reasons why 760B is so important. 760B was our 2017 all time high for the cryptocurrency markets. Back in June 2022 when we fell to $17.5k we hit 760B before having an explosive rally back to over $1T. This marked our first case scenario of macro old resistance (2017) flipping into macro new support (2022). Then again, after the FTX collapse we revisited that $760 B market cap and di not just double bottom but triple bottomed (black arrows)!!! This gives us strong hope that the bottom is in ajnd if we can get above our resistance (red trendline) we could start a new bull market. Now lets just theorize what we should look for if we get a weekly candle close below 760b. If marketcap gets rejected at our red trendline and previous top (around the psychological 1T/1.04t Level) then we could see another leg down. If marketcap breaks the key 760B level then we would look for our next level of support which is our green trendline. This green trendline has been holding candle body support since 2016. I estimate this level could be around 545B based on historic confluence (greed dotted ray). If marketcap can't hold the green trendline then we would look for our macro blue trendline since 2016. This trendline (depending on when marketcap would hit it) would put us around $200B. I have also added a blue dotted ray to outline that historic level. What do you guys think? Is this enough confirmation that the bottom is truly in or do we have lower to go?

BTC - The Golden Goose of Charts

This cycle has started to differ from normal 4 year cycle theory. Therefore, TA might not be as important as institutions siphoning up the BTC Supply. But if normal TA is to play out from the current point in this market cycle this is what we could expect for price to do. The timeframe is hard to dictate, if this scenario will happen before or after the halving, but right now it looks as if BTC could be forming a massive Cup & Handle pattern. Of course, if the ATH is broken soon then this scenario will most likely be invalidated. If this is the case, price should see an initial pullback to our 0.786 which is located at $57.4k. Also, the RSI is reaching our red zone of overextension so some kind of substantial pullback would not be out of the ordinary. Then, If we are gracious enough to retrace all the way back to the 0.618 (to flip old resistance into new support) the $48-50k would be the final buying opportunity before the ATH is broken in my opinion. I would also look to front run this level as that is what institutions will be doing, so once you see a major wick close to that level it will likely be the low if in fact we do get close to those levels. A couple other gold nuggets we have included in this chart. The 1.618 around $102k will be a very important level this cycle. Makes sense as well with $100k being very psychological. Also based on Viaquant's quantitative data. Somewhere around the $83.8k level will become very important. It is a secret level that will become clear in the future, but want to present this data to the market way in advance to prove how extraordinary Viaquant is from any other fund/institution.

by VIAQUANT

Mar 7, 2024

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