Viaquant

Quantitative Analyst & Trader. 500+ verified public predictions. 7+ years across digital assets, equities, and commodities.

Personal account. Founder of Viaquant. Long-term strategies through data-driven analytics, market structure, and macro signals.

A research-driven exploration of market structure, price behavior, and macro influence. Educational purposes only.

BTC - Use Caution

For many days I have been outlining that BTC has formed a significant low around $57,800. However, with the events that have unfolded today from both a technical and fundamental perspective, it might be time to exercise some caution regarding what the lower timeframes have just signaled. I have the 2-day chart for Bitcoin on the left and the daily USDT dominance chart on the right. The Fundamental Picture Let's outline what is currently happening. The US military launched new strikes against Iran early today, hours after three merchant ships were struck in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes came during the days-long funeral for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and threaten to unravel the interim ceasefire deal reached in mid-June. Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the move, stating the US bears responsibility for the consequences of this breach. This is a significant escalation given that shipping traffic through the Strait had only recently begun stabilizing. Because of these headlines, two of my other ideas have already begun to play out, and both directly affect my current outlook for crypto. DXY Holding Support The first chart this affects is the DXY, specifically the DXY holding very strong support from the retest I outlined in this idea: Oil Rebounding The second chart this affects is oil. I made a post a few days ago outlining that oil looked likely to rebound, and with today's headlines that is exactly what has begun to occur. That idea can be found here: Due to these factors, this may signal a risk-off environment developing, which would not help fuel the rally for BTC I have been predicting back toward $70,000 to $74,000. If market participants begin taking a risk-off approach, it is important to examine the market structure for USDT dominance. USDT Dominance (1 Day Timeframe) Looking at the daily chart, USDT.D is also signaling a reversal back to the upside. This would indicate that participants are looking to exchange crypto back for cash (or USDT in this case). USDT.D printed a shooting star candle formation at the close on July 6th which is a pattern that typically signals a reversal. So far the headlines today have fueled this move fundamentally through the classic flight to safety response to renewed uncertainty. This is also supported by a hidden bullish divergence forming on the RSI. The daily RSI created a lower low while the dominance chart simultaneously created a higher low. Bitcoin (2 Day Timeframe) Now let's examine Bitcoin's chart, which is inversely correlated to the Tether dominance chart I just outlined. Tonight Bitcoin printed a 2D spinning top which is a formation that typically signals indecision and a potential reversal. At the same time a hidden bearish divergence has also printed. A higher high on the RSI while price simultaneously made a lower high. This means that even with additional trend strength behind the move, buyers were not able to translate that strength into a meaningfully higher price. That could be an early warning sign that upside momentum may be exhausting itself on the lower timeframes. On the bright side, the macro weekly and 2-week charts remain intact. But since these developments have occurred on the lower timeframes, they are worth flagging as they could lead to significant developments if they continue to build. It will be important to watch how this news and these events unfold over the next few days. From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin needs to see a higher high in price and USDT.D needs to see a lower low. It may take a few days for this to unfold given today's print, but that would be the signal confirming the previous analysis I have been laying out is still intact. However, if price does start to roll over and USDT dominance continues rising as participants flock back into cash, this would likely signal that escalations are back on the rise and uncertainty has crept back into the market. If the weeklies start to turn red and flip below their open, it will be time to reassess where a potential lower low might occur. Either way I will keep you all updated in real time as I always do. Follow @VIAQUANT to stay updated.

DXY - Retest in Progress

So far the DXY's price action has aligned perfectly with my recent predictions. Let's focus on the most recent idea first, and I will include links to the others near the bottom of this post: In my last idea I made it very clear that the DXY was nearing a micro top and would fall back down to retest the top of the parallel channel. So far, the July 1st and July 2nd daily candle closes have held the top of the parallel channel with extreme accuracy, confirming that retest and the flip of old resistance (red arrows) into new support (green arrow). An Interesting Timing Distinction What makes this particularly interesting is that the current structure is slightly out of alignment with what I have been predicting for crypto. Normally the DXY is inversely correlated with crypto markets and risk assets as a whole. When the DXY rises, market participants tend to exit risk-on assets and flock to cash. When the DXY falls, participants tend to exit cash and rotate back into risk-on assets. This distinction is important to monitor closely. On the macro timeframe I am still expecting the DXY to see a major rally toward $105 to $107, which would likely lead to a significant crypto correction. However I do not believe this will occur until closer to Q4. Those macro ideas can be viewed here: This breakout and retest is an early sign that the DXY is beginning to build the strength necessary to fuel that larger move higher later in the year. The Sequencing The ideal scenario for both theses to play out, crypto rallying in the near term and the DXY breaking higher later on, would look something like this. The DXY bleeds slightly in the short term while maintaining the parallel channel or at least the 50 MA (orange trendline), while at the same time crypto surges toward its predicted next lower high. Crypto finds its local top at the same moment the DXY finds its local low. From there, the DXY begins surging toward its upper targets while crypto collapses toward its final bear market low for this cycle. There is a lot to monitor with this chart, but I wanted to lay out the current structure for the DXY as it will be a major signal of what comes next. For my past DXY posts that have played out with a high degree of accuracy, view them here:

BITU - Leverage Up?

There are a lot of signals flashing that indicate Bitcoin is likely to see a significant rally soon. Because of this I want to take a look at some related crypto ETFs that could also experience significant rallies. For this post I will be focusing on BITU, ProShares Ultra 2x Leveraged Bitcoin ETF, which aims to offer 2x the daily performance of Bitcoin. Other ETFs such as ProShares Ultra ETH 2x ETF (ETHT) is also worth mentioning, but since most of the market structure looks similar across crypto related leveraged ETFs, I will be focusing solely on BITU for this post. For my supporting analysis on Bitcoin, view these ideas: Now let's dive into how BITU's market structure looks. Of course it is very similar to Bitcoin since it is designed to mirror Bitcoin's daily performance, but the structure developing here is compelling in its own right. First, BITU has a daily bullish divergence with two perfect bounces from oversold conditions forming the bottom. The next thing to note is the volume spikes (orange circles). This ETF has consistently seen significant volume spikes whenever major lows have formed. Right now I am seeing volume increase once again, and it should continue to pick up as the broader market rises and ETFs like IBIT begin to see renewed inflows. The last signal worth pointing out is the 3D doji that printed right at the low. The RSI on the 3D chart is another significant indicator worth watching, as it is also signaling that a major reversal back to the upside is likely. Finally, leveraged ETFs like BITU should be complemented by IBIT's own structure. IBIT appears to have formed a low, as I outlined in a previous idea. If that holds true, inflows should begin returning to the fund and provide additional fuel to boost the leveraged ETFs like BITU alongside it. You can view that idea here:

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